Novaria Media and the threat of Russia

I like Novara Media.  They provide a different view of the world, one which is interesting, though not one I always agree with.  But they are biased and this video is an example of that.

People forget the aggression of Russia towards its neighbours. At the end of The Cold War, a peace dividend took place. Following German unification, NATO promised no further Eastern expansion, but then Russia invaded Moldova and Georgia to "liberate" Transnistria and Abkhazia, both of which happened to have large Russian populations. After seeing this, other former Warsaw Pact nations wanted to join NATO.  We have seen expansion continue with Sweden and Finland joining NATO following the second invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

So while Novara Media has a paranoid view of the threat of war, they forget that Russia has been the aggressor.  Many may cite the actions of the west in Kosovo, Lybia, Iraq and Afghanistan, but none of those military interventions were acts of colonisation to recreate an empire.  

Farage, making excuses for Russia and how he admires Putin

Anyone who follows my blog will have worked out that I am not a fan of Nigel Farage. I think that Brexit has harmed our nation, so much so, that most political parties in Europe who wanted to leave the EU, seeing the damage it has caused the UK, have dropped this idea. Sadly, it looks like the man who sold us Brexit will be our next Prime Minister.

But, it looks as if Russia will be pleased if that happens. James O’Brien on LBC has spoken really well on this issue about his former colleague and there is a great video detailing how Nigel Farage appears to have made excuses for Russia and Putin.  To be fair, many on the left have said similar things, but those on the left who did so, do not have a colleague has pleaded guilty to bribery charges relating to statements in favour of Russia in the European parliament.   

Spending on the military

Cheese eating surrender monkeys was a term that appeared to originate in The Simpsons.  I would argue that we have a new term now, that being Tofu Eating Surrender monkeys.  

After the end of The Cold War, a peace dividend took place.  After German unification, NATO promised no further Eastern expansion, but after the Russian invasions of Moldova and Georgia to liberate Transnistria and Abkhazia, which happened to have a large Russian population, other former Warsaw Pact nations wanted to join NATO.

Since the second invasion of Ukraine by Russia, Russia has been testing European defences.  While Russia has claimed it is innocent, this is the same Russia that promised it would not invade Ukraine before invading it again.  

When it comes to people who are concerned about out climate, I agree that more action needs to be taken on this.  However, if people argue that we should not increase our readiness to defend our NATO allies against Russia, or get rid of our nuclear weapons (as Ukraine did), I consider them fools.  

Palestine Action and Ukraine

Palestine Action is a topic I have posted about before. It is a group that have been banned under terrorism laws, a ban I agree with.  I will first address how Ukraine has noted that a lot of its sabotage appears to be targeting them, before moving onto its other actions.

Palestine action have attacked firms that they claim are aiding Israel, but are in fact aiding Ukraine.  The Leonardo site in Edinburgh has donated equipment to Ukraine and that site was targeted by Palestine Action.  Another company that they have targeted is aiding Ukraine, though the site they attacked may not be doing so.  Also they have attacked RAF Brize Norton, which trains Ukrainian pilots to defend their country, damaging planes not involved in the aid our nation (sadly) offers Israel. and also had plans to target other airfields training Ukrainian pilots.  

Other attacks across Europe have damaged the supply efforts to aid Ukraine, again, this being Palestinian supporters who have accidentally harmed this.

But Palestine action have attacked Jewish businesses.  While they say that this has been linked to supporting Israel, and many consider such action acceptable, most will condemn similar action by the far right to attack hotels where asylum seekers are being held.

I think that Israel is in the wrong with how it treats Palestinians.  I think our government should not be aiding Israel as much as it is.  I think it is right to protest against the ethnic cleansing of Gaza and The West Bank.  I do not think it is right to stand with Palestine Action, especially when there are loads of other groups protesting in support of the people of Palestine.  

Russian windows and The Handmaid's Tale

I have posted before about suspicious Russian deaths before, but not for a while.  My last post was in December 2022, and the one before that was in September 2022.  Well there appear to be a spate of new accidents and suicides.  I am not sure if the exact interpretation of the cause is going to be accurate in the video, but I am glad to live in a nation where those who object to our nation do not end up dead.

On a different note, I got home late from work but spent the time watching the last episode of The Handmaid's Tale.  The end of the series was overdue.  I loved it when I started to watch it, but then the plot started to fork.  It became unnervingly accurate with how refugees are hated, but the final episode was just too fanciful.  Gilead would have driven the insurgents out and would have used brutal force, the Commanders would not have flown out if enemy planes were in the area, and also would have left the area of combat as soon as danger started.  

But it is also disturbing to watch how the USA has drifted towards authoritarianism.  It is one thing to deny entry to the USA for those who do not like Trump, it is another thing to detain and/or deport those legally in the USA for exercising the right to free speech, but the administration is now targeting Americans. 

When I started to watch The Handmaid's Tale, I saw how people compared the USA to it.  I felt that was an exaggeration.  I still think that it reflects Afghanistan more than the US, but the US is becoming more like it now.

Romania and Bulgaria contributed to the invasion of Ukraine thanks to NATO expansion

In the UK, it is VE day today.  It will be celebrated in Russia tomorrow, and it will be interesting to see if the parade is disrupted or not.  

I was to make a post about NATO expansion and the promise not to do so, and I still will, but before I get onto that, Putin has said that Romania and Bulgaria are partly to blame for his invasion of Ukraine.  This is in part linked to the issue of NATO expansion.  Apparently, there was a verbal agreement made that NATO would not expand after the unification of Germany.  As you can see from the video's below, there is a lot of evidence to back this up.

But after that verbal agreement was made, Russia invaded Moldova to liberate Transnistria in 1992 and the following year, invaded Georgia to liberate Abkhazia.  To be fair, to Russia, violence had erupted before the two invasions, that in Abkhazia being especially brutal.  The invasions did bring about peace, but they also in effect have expanded Russian territory to include areas with Russian speaking people.    

NATO expansion did not take place until after the two invasions, Poland calling for it in 1993, but not being admitted until 1999 when Hungary and the Czech Republic also joined the alliance. 

So yes, Russia did think it had an agreement that NATO would not expand. Russia then caused nations to want to join NATO by invading (and still occupying) parts of Georgia and Moldova.  

Elections in Ukraine and a UN government

Peace is being discussed (again) in Ukraine.  Putin has now agreed in part to the latest plan from Trump, but I think that we should accept the plan from Putin.

Late last month, Putin had proposed that Ukraine was placed under a UN mandate and that elections were held.  I think that this is an excellent ideas and we should work towards the UN taking over all of Ukraine, with elections being held across Ukraine, these being run and supervised by the UN, this including it taking place in areas occupied and/or annexed by Russia.

In addition to this a free and fair set of referendums can be held rather than the fixed ones that Russia held which have been accepted as valid by some in the Trump administration. I suspect that Putin did not have this in mind, but what he said he meant sounds good. 

The failure of diplomacy involving Ukraine will benefit Putin

Well that was an interesting meeting.  The video analysis is one I disagree with in that I think that Vance made things worse rather than was trying to make things better.  It is a shame that so much has been thrown away after Macron and Starmer appeared to get Trump onside when it comes to the conflict.  

I suspect that the consequence of this is that aid from the USA to Ukraine will end.  If this includes stopping Ukraine accessing Starlink, Ukraine will not be able to defend its borders properly.  

We have already seen the US side with Russia over this conflict in the United Nations.  

The west is going to have to step up to replace artillery shells being sent to Ukraine.  On the plus side, doing so may create more jobs and stimulate growth.  

The art of the deal

First of all, the family. My wife, son and dog are taking a few days off in Rutland.  We arrived yesterday but today brought about some changes. We had arranged to have a room shared with my son, but he is taller than me now (just). He slept on a camp bed last night, but did not do well.  So we have paid for him to have a room of his own, but it is in a different part of the hotel.

Today we went exploring, getting some dog food for Leia (we had been told that the dog would be fed by the hotel when we booked it) as well as having lunch in a local bakery.  I went for a walk later with Leia, but came back with my shoes caked in mud.  Dinner has been nice, but my meals have not been as good as I had hoped. Yesterday my pasta was undercooked and today my son and I ordered steak to be served rare, for it to come as medium.  The steak was still good, but was not as good as we wanted it to be.

Now for Trump. He states that he believes Putin when Putin says he wants an end to the war. That is true, but Putin wants the capitulation of Ukraine, something he might get. With the relations between Trump and Zelenskyy worsening, the question arises as to if Ukraine will be invaded after all.  Trump stopping aid to Ukraine is one thing, ending the sanctions on Russia though will be even more damaging.  We saw what a great deal Trump agreed with the Taliban in 2020 about Afghanistan, a great deal that is for The Taliban. Back then he did not include the Afghan government in the talks, just as he has not included Ukraine in these talks.  Based on how well the last deal went, we can expect Ukraine to be speaking Russian in the next few years. 

Does The Manchurian Candidate think that the US started a war with Japan by attacking them at Pearl Harbour?

Donald Trump has done it again. He has grabbed headlines. This time, it is because he has agreed with Putin that Ukraine is at fault for Russia invading it.

There have been many on the left and the right who have argued that Putin is acting in response to the actions of the west, notably NATO expansion. I have discussed how this is wrong before, but am happy to do so again.  If any agreement was made about NATO expansion, the former nations of The Warsaw Pact would have become nervous once Russia liberated Transnistria from Moldova. Appeasement did not work then with Russia moving to liberate Abkhazia afterwards.  NATO expansion occurred after this, and there was a few years of peace before Russia liberated South Ossetia. The policy of appeasement lasted until Russia ‘helped’ Crimea liberate itself in early 2014, Russia starting the war in The Donbas afterwards.  During this conflict Russia shot down MH17 by accident but then denied doing so.  

Russia amassed troops on the border of Ukraine in 2022, and despite saying it would not do so, invaded. Though this time, they waited until after the Olympics (the Winter ones) before they invaded. Like Putin, I did not think that the war would last this long. I, like many across the globe, was surprised to see that Ukraine lasted. 

I want an end to the war, this being one where Ukraine regains its borders. I do not see anything close to that happening and the question now is if Trump will allow Ukraine to be invaded.

Trump, NATO funding and Article 5

There appears to be a view that Trump would defend NATO nations in the event that US support was needed.

I think that it is insane to rely on him.  But, saying that, I think that the threat of invasion from Russia is low in the next few years, considering how many casualties Russia has sustained in Ukraine.  My issue is not if Trump would defend Europe (I do not think that he would), but more importantly, will US presidents who follow him decide to go along his populist line.  

Article 5 provides that if a NATO Ally is the victim of an armed attack, each & every other member of the Alliance will consider this act of violence as an armed attack against all members & will take the actions it deems NECESSARY to assist the Ally attacked. 

 

Many think that he would obey Article 5. I think that he would and would take the actions that he felt was necessary to assist the ally which had been attacked. Sadly I suspect that such actions would in essence, be nothing.  With this in mind, greater European cooperation on defence is needed, and I am glad Starmer has attended a meeting about this.  

Trump and Article 5 of the NATO rules

Article 5 provides that if a NATO Ally is the victim of an armed attack, each & every other member of the Alliance will consider this act of violence as an armed attack against all members & will take the actions it deems NECESSARY to assist the Ally attacked.

I have stated before that I have concerns that Trump would support nations of NATO if Russia attacked.  Many think that he would obey Article 5.  I think that he would and would take the actions that he felt was necessary to assist the ally which had been attacked. And I suspect that such actions would in essence, be nothing.

 

Imane Khelif and Lin Yu-ting are women

There has been controversy about Imane Khelif taking part in women's boxing.  This video explains what has happened.

Basically, she failed a gender test after beating a Russian, the test was requested by an organisation that many consider to be run by a Russian, and after she was disqualified, the Russian was officially unbeaten. 

While Lin Yu-ting did not have the same issue, it may have been that her crime was that she represented Taiwan. 

Sadly, it appears that these two women are casualties in the increasingly polarised binary stance on gender and gender identity, as well as being the victims of fake news, deliberately spread by what many consider to be a corrupt organisation. 

As with all my posts, I am genuinely interested in what views are held on this matter and feel free to let me know what you think.

A European Union army

People in Europe are becoming increasingly wary of the outcome of the next American Presidential Election.  Conscription has been discussed in the UK, people forgetting that the reason we might need this is if the USA pulls out of NATO.  

If the USA does elect Trump, there will then be a risk of Russia being able to liberate Russian people in the Baltic states in the same way that Russia has done in Crimea, Transnistria (also know as Pridnestrovie), Abkhazia and South Ossetia as well as what Russia is trying to with parts of Ukraine.

A European defence force without having to rely on Trump would be a great idea.  Issues do arise about what to do with Hungary, the greatest ally of Russia within the block, and also, a replacement for a NATO where Trump cannot be trusted to help its members would probably exclude the UK. 

Alexei Navalny and strength

Listening to The News Agents yesterday, I heard a guest claiming that Putin killing Alexei Navalny was a sign of weakness. He was wrong. Putin learned from the fall of the USSR. The 1991 Soviet coup attempt would probably have succeeded if not for Boris Yeltsin. Putin, a fan of history (though with his own soin that distorts reality) is aware that if Yeltsin had been dealt with sooner, he would not have been present to help organise effective resistance against the coup. By killing potential rivals including the late Boris Nemtsov, he is ensuring that there is no figurehead to take advantage of any instability, should it happen. Remember that this almost came to pass when The Wagner Group marched on Moscow last year. 

At least his rivals are not dismembered while still alive, unlike what has happened with our friend and ally, Saudi Arabia. The ally we have continued to sell arms to despite their use in Yemen. 

Alexei Navalny

I do not mourn the death of a far right politician in Russia. However, his death was wrong, and while I strongly disagree with many of his views, his imprisonment and previous attempts to kill him were wrong. I considered him to be insane to return to Russia when he could have lived in exile, but his decision while brave, has made him into a martyr. But to be fair, living abroad has not saved others.

There have been many who have defended Russia and Putin after his interview with Tucker Carlson. I do wonder if they are to defend yet another assassination in Russia. 

NATO expansion

It appears according to Putin that NATO expansion is the cause of Russia invading Ukraine.  

An agreement about NATO expansion apparently had been made in 1990, this being that NATO would not expand beyond the reunified Germany.

After this agreement, in 1992, Russia aided in the 'liberation' of Transnistria from Moldova as well as Abkhazia and South Ossetia from Georgia.  Both areas had a substantial Russian population which some would argue was the reason for Russian intervention.  Since then, Russia has helped to 'liberate' Crimea from Ukraine, an area of Ukraine with a large Russian speaking population. Following this, other areas of Eastern Ukraine sought independence, which is when the frozen conflict started which resumed in 2022. 

Nations on the borders of Russia, watching how Russia had helped with the liberation of parts of Moldova and Georgia understandably became concerned that they would be next.  So when someone blames NATO for its expansion, ask them if those new nations should have trusted a nation which invaded, and still occupies, old parts of the USSR to create a Greater Russia.

And if people feel that Russia has a right to obtain its ancestral lands, does China have that right with territory that now belongs to Russia?

Conscription, Trump and NATO

The issue of conscription has come up in the news.  The official reason is the threat that Russia poses. To be fair, Russia does not pose much of a threat at present. Most of its available troops are tied down in Ukraine.

But that is at present.  I think that Trump will be elected this year and I do not trust him to defend Europe if Russia decides to liberate the Baltic States in the way that it has with bits of Moldova and Georgia.  If that happens, the USA may or may not fulfil its obligations as part of NATO, that is of course, if it stays part of NATO.

The odds are that the conflict in Ukraine will be resolved if Trumps takes power with the surrender of yet more Ukrainian territory, and that means that Russia will then rearm and prepare for its next land grab.

Destruction of the Kakhovka Dam

On the 6th of June, the Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine was destroyed.  Both Russia and Ukraine blamed the other side. For Russia, this would cause issues with the water supply to Crimea and also risk safety at Europe's largest nuclear plant. For Ukraine, this means that not only are the areas that they recaptured to be flooded, but also this is going to be harder to cross the Dnipro River. When I say cross, Ukrainian forces already did this in April and it may be that the flooding may affect those who are on the south bank.  

Such an action will make it harder for Ukraine to retake Crimea, but I suspect that was going to be a hard ask anyway. 

  

Negotiating with the Russians

The second invasion of Ukraine started a year ago.  Many have called for negotiations with Russia to end the war.  With this in mind, I think that it is fair to mention the previous negotiations that have taken place.

In 1994, The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances was signed where Russia, the US and the UK confirmed their recognition of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine becoming parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and effectively abandoning their nuclear arsenal to Russia, and that they agreed to the following: 

    - Respect the signatory's independence and sovereignty in the existing borders.

    - Refrain from the threat or the use of force against the signatory.

    - Refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by the signatory of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind.

    - Seek immediate Security Council action to provide assistance to the signatory if they "should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used".

    - Refrain from the use of nuclear arms against the signatory.

    - Consult with one another if questions arise regarding those commitments.

We saw what happened with that in 2014 when Russia invaded Crimea and likewise, invaded and supported an insurrection in The Donbass.  

The Minsk Protocol, was drafted in 2014 and was not followed and with the aid of Russian volunteers, the DPR captured the Donetsk Airport. Minsk II, which was signed on 12 February 2015 and bought Russia time to prepare to invade again.

Also, before the invasion last year, it appeared at a meeting, that the decision to annexe Ukrainian territory had already been made, but not officially.

Normally, negotiation is needed to end conflict.  However, Putin appears to see it as a way to regroup, rearm and invade again.  If we have a negotiated peace in Ukraine, we need to decide if it is worth enforcing it when Russia finds a reason to break it again.