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Thursday 24 February 2022

It is not the fault of Putin that he is invading Ukraine


As predicted, Ukraine, when surrounded by the Russian army, has "started" a war. Despite facing overwhelming odds, they have attacked and Russia has had "no choice" but to respond. As in 1939 when "Poland attacked Germany" in similar circumstances, the response has been swift and overwhelming. Officially, I understand that Ukraine provoked this by attacking the Donbass republics that Putin had recently recognised. At the time of typing this Chernobyl may fall to the Russians who appear have attacked from neutral Belarus.  This of course in addition to being attacked from its borders with Russia and the Donbass region itself. 

When it comes to the expressed intent of Russia which is denazification, that will mean that regime change is required.  And that means the end of Ukraine being a democracy as I doubt any leader imposed by Putin would have the support of a population that has been attacked by Russia.  

I do wonder if Ukraine would be facing this invasion, if it had kept its nuclear weapons as it had disarmed in the past, just as I do wonder if it would have kept Crimea and the Donbass if it had retained its deterrent.  If Ukraine had kept its nuclear weapons, may be it would be safe from being part (or bits of it being part) of a greater Russia.