The second invasion of Ukraine started a year ago. Many have called for negotiations with Russia to end the war. With this in mind, I think that it is fair to mention the previous negotiations that have taken place.
In 1994, The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances was signed where Russia, the US and the UK confirmed their recognition of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine becoming parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and effectively abandoning their nuclear arsenal to Russia, and that they agreed to the following:
- Respect the signatory's independence and sovereignty in the existing borders.
- Refrain from the threat or the use of force against the signatory.
- Refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by the signatory of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind.
- Seek immediate Security Council action to provide assistance to the signatory if they "should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used".
- Refrain from the use of nuclear arms against the signatory.
- Consult with one another if questions arise regarding those commitments.
We saw what happened with that in 2014 when Russia invaded Crimea and likewise, invaded and supported an insurrection in The Donbass.
The Minsk Protocol, was drafted in 2014 and was not followed and with the aid of Russian volunteers, the DPR captured the Donetsk Airport. Minsk II, which was signed on 12 February 2015 and bought Russia time to prepare to invade again.
Also, before the invasion last year, it appeared at a meeting, that the decision to annexe Ukrainian territory had already been made, but not officially.
Normally, negotiation is needed to end conflict. However, Putin appears to see it as a way to regroup, rearm and invade again. If we have a negotiated peace in Ukraine, we need to decide if it is worth enforcing it when Russia finds a reason to break it again.
