The world has been worried about the risk of Russia invading Ukraine. I think that is silly. Russia already invaded Ukraine, not just Crimea, but also in effect, the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic. But Russia will not invade Ukraine without provocation. I suspect if war happens, Ukraine will attack Russia, and Russia will respond with the forces which just so happen to be on its borders and taking part in exercises in Belarus. We have in effect bought peace in our time by letting Russia keep its gains, but we may need to let it have more.
