Panic, peer pressure and COVID19

We live in interesting times.

The picture was taken when I was shopping in Waitrose and there was little bottled water left on the shelves.

Panic has set in and the pressure to do what others do is overwhelming for many.

And this applies to what other nations are doing to respond to COVID19.

A few issues have been raised.  One is the way that we are no longer testing everyone who is suspected of having COVID19.  From what I understand, the number of tests required to continue doing this is to exceed the capacity. It is a shame for many as if those who are infected with COVID19 know they have had it, they also know that they no longer pose a risk to others.  An issue that even more important for those who have a formal or informal role in looking after those who are vulnerable.

The next issue is why we are not carrying out the shutdowns that are occurring in Italy and Spain are not happening here.  The answer to that is that they will, soon.  In the UK we are a week or so behind France and Spain.

There is cynicism about the ability of Boris to manage this.  If it was just down to him, I would share those concerns.  But it is not.  Our Prime Minister is making decisions after listening to those in Public Health who have access to epidemiological data from the UK, Italy, Wuhan, South Korea, France and Spain.

People are going to die due this illness.  The aim is to keep the numbers as low as possible.  It is scary, but we can ask our government to panic, or we can hope they can stay calm, and make the right decisions at the right time.

Heathrow

Today has been a bit knackering.

My son has been catching up on Doctor Who and my daughter was at a sleep over.  And the parents of my wife have returned from being abroad. So we went to meet up with them before I went to take my mother to Heathrow to travel abroad.  The airport was quiet, understandable considering how people are concerned about travelling, including my mother.  And while she is concerned about the flight and travelling, I am mostly reassured that she should be safer abroad.  So long as she takes care when travelling by public transport.

Donald Trump has made an excellent political move, that will have no health benefits. A travel ban will not work.

I have woken up to find that Donald Trump has increased the travel ban due to COVID19.  Well, bits of one, this being a ban on travel from nations who are in the Schengen Agreement area.  

This move will have much more of an effect on how the American public view him, but little on this disease.  COVID19 is already in the USA and the rates are probably greater than have been tested considering the way the USA has not been able to test as many people as has happened in Europe.  Of course, Trump has decided to blame Obama for this.  But while he wanted to cut funds to the CDC which is responsible for managing the response to this in the USA, despite Ebola, it is uncertain if these cuts have taken effect.  

But travel bans do not work.  People in the UK had called for a travel ban when this started to stop people coming in from China.  But our first national to have it, contracted it in Singapore and brought it to the UK via France.  There is only one nation to have imposed more strict bans on travel due to COVID, this being North Korea, and this has not worked there to prevent it entering the nation, though it is unclear if they will be able to limit any spread or not with the measures that they have put in place.  And when it comes to this new travel ban, people in the Schengen Agreement area will find ways to get around this by travelling to other destinations, including the UK before flying to the US.

To put it simply, the travel ban that Trump has imposed is unlikely to do much to prevent the spread of COVID19, but it will appeal to many voters, even though it makes little sense. 

Nadine Dorries, COVID19 and Kinder Gentler Politics

One of my elected representatives had made an ill judged tweet about Nadine Dorries.  To be fair, he has since removed it, but it appeared to be poking fun at her for catching it.  Now, for the record, I do not like Nadine Dorries, in fact I abhor her.  I think her defence of austerity is reprehensible and her comments on the NHS in the past, denying the reality of Conservative under-funding while politically astute, are, for someone who has worked in the NHS, morally bankrupt.  

But I think it is wrong to revel in her misfortune.  I know it is controversial, but if someone had spread lies about COVID19 and then caught it, I would be tweeting  similar comments about them, but she has not done so.

Some have called her incompetent for catching it, but while precautions can be taken to reduce the chance of catching or spreading it, her contracting this is nothing to do with incompetence.

I wish her a speedy recovery and I hope her elderly mother, whom she lives with, also recovers soon.

Are people panicking over nothing when it comes to COVID19

The simple answer is yes and no.

Yes, people appear to be panicking over toilet roll and dried pasta in the UK when they should not be.  On Saturday, when we visited my mother we were not able to get into Costco as people were stocking up there.  Saying that, stocking up now means that there will still be supplies when COVID19 hits the UK properly.

And sadly, it will.  At the moment, the strategy of containment is working to delay the spread of this virus as much as reasonably possible.  But it will spread.  The number of confirmed cases appears to be doubling every day and the NHS is doing the best it can to cope with this.

The government is listening to it when it comes to preparing for this, and the NHS will do the best it can to cope.  But I do not think any healthcare system in temperate zones will be able to cope with this, until summer hits.  While the NHS was better prepared when it faced Swine Flu in terms of finances and staffing levels, this illness is more fatal.

And this is where some people are being complacent on the internet.  Yes, flu kills.  Yes, Swine Flu did not kill as many as expected (thanks to immunisation and the use of the drugs that are available).  But there is no vaccine against COVID19 and only one drug appears to have any potential against this.  The death rate may not be as high as the 3% reported in some newspapers, and we have South Korea to thank for this information as they have been screening lots of people for COVID19, not just those with symptoms.

But this is more fatal, and this has been noted by the deaths of those in China who have been treating patients with this condition.

And working in healthcare, yes, I am worried that I will join that list.  But I am more concerned about how this will affect my wife.  My kids hopefully should not be affected by it too much.

On the bright side, at least I am not in the USA where I would be landed with a huge bill if I am concerned that I have this.

1-0 to the Arsenal

And it is another win for the Arsenal.  

But before I post about that, a quick update on the children.  My son went paintballing on Saturday and had fun.  He had promised me before that he would dress up in a warm manner, but was not happy when my wife told him to change out of his very smart clothes when he went as it was quite muddy.  When he did change, he had decided to ignore what I had said about keeping warm.

After he had been dropped of by my wife, we travelled down to see my Mother.  Needless to say, with COVID19 due to hit the nation, I am concerned about this.  The parents of my wife are to return to the UK despite what we have said about this when they could be in a warmer climate which means that they would be at less risk of this.  

My mother was glad to see my daughter, my wife and I, but was a bit sad that she did not get to see my son.  But she has been convinced to leave the country for a few months, an option that is not available to all.  She will be in warmer climes and hopefully this will offer her some protection.  On the way home, we tried to pop into Costo, but was not able to get in due to the queue of cars.  We could have waited, but would have been stuck there for a while and would have had to fight for a parking space.  

Today, my son went out for a meal with friends and while he was having fun with them, by wife and I had a civilised meal around the corner.  Spending time with her is always a pleasure, but to do so without children (my daughter was at home doing her homework and watching television) is even better.  I do love the children, but one on one time with my wife is becoming too rare.

Anyway, Arsenal won.  We could and should have played better but a win is a win.  And the scum did not win.  I would have preferred it if they had lost, but I should not be greedy!

US healthcare again

I know that things have changed since Obamacare in the USA and that Trump has been trying to improve things further by cutting back on the healthcare that Americans get.

And while I do rant about the NHS and how much better it can (and should) be, I am very grateful that we still have it for now.

So if I come across as being cynical, it is only because the NHS was better before 2010 than it is now in so many ways and I am frustrated that the policies of the Conservatives have made things worse when it comes to how it performs.