Come Friday, I predict that the by-election to the Welsh Parliament in Caerphilly will result in the demolition of Labour. I also think that this will continue for a year or two. Labour are toxic. They have been seen to fail on immigration, they have been seen to fail on helping the most vulnerable and they have been seen to fail on Israel and Gaza (depending on which side you are on).
When it comes to immigration, I think that Labour are wrong. I think that we need more immigration to help our nation, not just taking advantage of those who are leaving or are prevented from going to the USA, but also people to work in the care sector, the health service and other areas. However, the One-In-One-Out policy is working and is much more ethical than the Rwanda policy of the Conservatives. Reform and the Conservatives hate the policy as it involves taking refugees from France in return. If it is able to be expanded, it will bring about an end to those crossing The Channel as those who make the crossing will be sent back to France.
The benefits system does need to be reformed. Most people I see on benefits work or have genuine reasons why they cannot work. But I see too many people who could work, but do not. A lot can be supported into work, but that will require a carrot and stick approach to do so. However, we still have huge levels of poverty, and any reform to the benefits system needs to ensure that we take more people out of poverty as opposed to pushing more into it. And we will be able to see this when there is less of a need for foodbanks.
Gaza and Israel divides the nation, people picking one side as the villain and the other as the victim. We need to remember that Israel has been stealing Palestinian land since the Oslo accords, but also that there was no excuse for the October 7th attacks. There can never be any justification for the atrocities that took place in Gaza afterwards however.
But Labour have done a lot. Roads are improving with less potholes being an issue. The NHS, which I work in, is slowly getting better. And the economy, despite it being hamstrung by Brexit, is doing surprisingly well. Starmer basically has got down on his knees in front of Trump and 'earned' 10% tariffs, something few other leaders would be able to do. While Farage could do the same, he would sell out a lot more to reach the same goal.
What Labour are terrible at doing is communicating what they have done. Starmer should be honest and say that Labour are going to have some terrible years, but if Labour can continue to deliver, and more importantly, deliver more, then it can retain power at the next election. A change in leader would result in even higher debt repayments and I want tax payers money to go to making our nation better, not to bank shareholders.
